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Novorizontino vs Nautico Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 22:00

Novorizontino

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Nautico

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-111.0%0-25.6%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.9%1-113.3%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.8%2-18.0%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.2%3-13.2%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 47.6% 2.10 -5.7%

Draw 27.6% 31.3% 3.20 -7.0%

Away win 27.5% 28.2% 3.55 -1.4%

Over 2.5 47.1% 46.5% 2.15 +1.3%

Over 3.5 28.1% 25.0% 4.00 +7.4%

BTTS 47.8% 54.1% 1.85 -11.6%

Home O1.5 41.6% 44.4% 2.25 -6.4%

Away O1.5 31.7% 30.3% 3.30 +4.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 121 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.8%

H 45% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.7%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 0–1 11.0%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Novorizontino1.2

Nautico1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NOVORIZONTINO · PPG 2.00

NAUTICO · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Novorizontino (H) 44.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -5.7%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.0%

Nautico (A) 27.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Novorizontino face Nautico in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Novorizontino a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Nautico 28%, so Novorizontino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Novorizontino and 1.0 for Nautico (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Novorizontino are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.67 for Nautico. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Novorizontino vs Nautico Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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