Today / Brazil - Serie B / Sport Recife vs Cuiaba

Sport Recife vs Cuiaba Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 20 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 22:30

Sport Recife

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cuiaba

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.3%0-111.5%0-23.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.6%1-112.3%1-23.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.5%2-16.6%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.7%3-12.3%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-10.8%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 52.6% 1.90 -12.0%

Draw 30.7% 30.8% 3.25 -0.2%

Away win 23.0% 23.3% 4.30 -0.7%

Over 2.5 39.3% 40.8% 2.45 -3.7%

Over 3.5 22.2% 21.1% 4.75 +3.3%

BTTS 47.9% 47.6% 2.10 +0.6%

Home O1.5 35.0% 44.4% 2.25 -21.3%

Away O1.5 19.2% 23.1% 4.33 -10.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.9%

H 46% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.3%

#2 1–0 19.6%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 2–0 10.5%

#5 0–1 11.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sport Recife1.1

Cuiaba0.6

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 22.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORT RECIFE · PPG 1.50

CUIABA · PPG 1.11

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.44, combined xG 1.70 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sport Recife (H) 46.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -12.0%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -0.2%

Cuiaba (A) 23.0%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sport Recife face Cuiaba in Brazil - Serie B on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sport Recife a 46% chance, the draw 31% and Cuiaba 23%, so Sport Recife are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Sport Recife and 0.6 for Cuiaba (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sport Recife are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.11 for Cuiaba. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.3%.

Sport Recife vs Cuiaba Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie B Predictions