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Ponte Preta vs Athletic Club Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 20 ·Tuesday, July 28, 2026, 22:30

Ponte Preta

PPG 0.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Athletic Club

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 50.6% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-115.8%0-210.6%0-34.8%0-4+2.2%1 1-09.3%1-112.6%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-03.7%2-15.0%2-23.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.0%3-11.3%3-20.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.5% 25.6% 3.90 -7.3%

Draw 26.9% 31.3% 3.20 -8.3%

Away win 50.6% 50.0% 2.00 +1.2%

Over 2.5 46.8% 44.4% 2.25 +5.3%

Over 3.5 27.7% 23.8% 4.20 +9.8%

BTTS 48.5% 51.8% 1.93 -6.4%

Home O1.5 33.3% 27.8% 3.60 +19.9%

Away O1.5 41.9% 44.4% 2.25 -5.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 115 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 26.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.5%

A 51% / xG 0.8-1.3 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–1 15.8%

#3 0–0 11.7%

#4 0–2 10.6%

#5 1–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ponte Preta0.8

Athletic Club1.3

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PONTE PRETA · PPG 0.50

ATHLETIC CLUB · PPG 1.22

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.55 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Ponte Preta (H) 22.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -7.3%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.3%

Athletic Club (A) 50.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +1.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ponte Preta face Athletic Club in Brazil - Serie B on Tuesday, July 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ponte Preta a 23% chance, the draw 27% and Athletic Club 51%, so Athletic Club are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Ponte Preta and 1.3 for Athletic Club (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ponte Preta are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.22 for Athletic Club. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +19.9%.

Ponte Preta vs Athletic Club Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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