Today / Brazil - Serie B / Juventude vs Avai

Juventude vs Avai Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 20 ·Tuesday, July 28, 2026, 22:30

Juventude

PPG 2.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Avai

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-15.9%0-21.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.9%1-19.7%1-22.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.6%2-18.0%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.6%3-14.4%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-12.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.7% 63.7% 1.57 -9.4%

Draw 24.5% 27.4% 3.65 -6.3%

Away win 17.9% 16.1% 6.20 +6.6%

Over 2.5 46.8% 44.4% 2.25 +5.3%

Over 3.5 26.4% 23.1% 4.33 +8.6%

BTTS 46.7% 45.5% 2.20 +2.7%

Home O1.5 53.5% 54.1% 1.85 -1.0%

Away O1.5 19.1% 19.0% 5.25 +0.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 115 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 26.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.7%

H 58% / xG 1.7-0.5 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.9%

#2 2–0 15.6%

#3 0–0 11.5%

#4 1–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juventude1.7

Avai0.5

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENTUDE · PPG 2.30

AVAI · PPG 0.56

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.14 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Juventude (H) 57.7%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -9.4%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -6.3%

Avai (A) 17.9%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juventude face Avai in Brazil - Serie B on Tuesday, July 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juventude a 58% chance, the draw 25% and Avai 18%, so Juventude are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Juventude and 0.5 for Avai (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juventude are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 0.56 for Avai. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.6%.

Juventude vs Avai Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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