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Fortaleza EC vs Botafogo SP Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 20 ·Wednesday, July 29, 2026, 00:35

Fortaleza EC

PPG 2.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Botafogo SP

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-18.8%0-23.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.7%1-112.5%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-18.8%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.9%3-14.2%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% 55.6% 1.80 -10.9%

Draw 26.8% 29.4% 3.40 -5.3%

Away win 23.7% 22.2% 4.50 +4.0%

Over 2.5 45.9% 46.5% 2.15 -1.3%

Over 3.5 28.8% 23.8% 4.20 +12.6%

BTTS 49.2% 51.3% 1.95 -4.1%

Home O1.5 45.4% 48.8% 2.05 -6.9%

Away O1.5 20.3% 25.0% 4.00 -11.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 118 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 22.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 14.7%

#3 0–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fortaleza EC1.4

Botafogo SP0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FORTALEZA EC · PPG 2.44

BOTAFOGO SP · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fortaleza EC (H) 49.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -10.9%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.3%

Botafogo SP (A) 23.7%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fortaleza EC face Botafogo SP in Brazil - Serie B on Wednesday, July 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fortaleza EC a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Botafogo SP 24%, so Fortaleza EC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Fortaleza EC and 0.8 for Botafogo SP (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fortaleza EC are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 1.00 for Botafogo SP. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +21.5%.

Fortaleza EC vs Botafogo SP Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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