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America Mineiro vs Goias Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 21:30

America Mineiro

PPG 0.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Goias

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-113.2%0-28.6%0-33.7%0-4+1.6%1 1-010.0%1-113.0%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-04.9%2-16.4%2-24.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.6%3-12.1%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.7% 36.4% 2.75 -15.6%

Draw 26.9% 35.0% 2.86 -13.8%

Away win 42.4% 35.7% 2.80 +18.7%

Over 2.5 49.1% 38.2% 2.62 +28.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 19.0% 5.25 +30.4%

BTTS 52.3% 48.8% 2.05 +7.2%

Home O1.5 35.0% 32.3% 3.10 +8.5%

Away O1.5 40.0% 31.3% 3.20 +28.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.3%

A 42% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 49% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 10.1%

#3 0–1 13.2%

#4 0–2 8.6%

#5 1–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

America Mineiro1.0

Goias1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AMERICA MINEIRO · PPG 0.33

GOIAS · PPG 1.30

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.32, combined xG 2.29 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

America Mineiro (H) 30.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -15.6%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV -13.8%

Goias (A) 42.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +18.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

America Mineiro face Goias in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives America Mineiro a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Goias 42%, so Goias are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for America Mineiro and 1.3 for Goias (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, America Mineiro are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.30 for Goias. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +30.4%.

America Mineiro vs Goias Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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