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Atletico Goianiense vs Operario-PR Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 20 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 22:30

Atletico Goianiense

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Operario-PR

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-110.4%0-25.2%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.0%1-113.1%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.2%2-18.3%2-24.2%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.5%3-13.5%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.4% 50.3% 1.99 -19.6%

Draw 26.6% 30.8% 3.25 -8.1%

Away win 33.0% 26.0% 3.85 +27.1%

Over 2.5 50.0% 47.6% 2.10 +5.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.3% 3.80 +5.4%

BTTS 52.3% 54.6% 1.83 -4.3%

Home O1.5 38.5% 47.6% 2.10 -19.1%

Away O1.5 30.6% 29.4% 3.40 +4.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 40% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.3%

#3 1–0 13.0%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Goianiense1.3

Operario-PR1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO GOIANIENSE · PPG 1.60

OPERARIO-PR · PPG 1.56

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.25, combined xG 2.27 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Goianiense (H) 40.4%

ODDS 1.99 · IMPLIED 50.3% EV -19.6%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.1%

Operario-PR (A) 33.0%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +27.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Goianiense face Operario-PR in Brazil - Serie B on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Goianiense a 40% chance, the draw 27% and Operario-PR 33%, so Atletico Goianiense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Atletico Goianiense and 1.0 for Operario-PR (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Goianiense are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.56 for Operario-PR. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +20.0%.

Atletico Goianiense vs Operario-PR Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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