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CRB vs Vila Nova Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 20 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 22:30

CRB

PPG 1.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vila Nova

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+15.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.9%0-24.3%0-32.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.1%1-110.4%1-27.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-19.0%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.6%3-15.2%3-23.8%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.4%4+-22.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% 52.6% 1.90 -8.2%

Draw 24.2% 29.9% 3.35 -11.4%

Away win 27.4% 24.4% 4.10 +7.4%

Over 2.5 61.5% 47.6% 2.10 +29.1%

Over 3.5 39.9% 26.7% 3.75 +49.6%

BTTS 62.5% 54.1% 1.85 +15.6%

Home O1.5 53.5% 48.8% 2.05 +9.7%

Away O1.5 46.9% 28.2% 3.55 +66.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.5%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CRB1.7

Vila Nova1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.5% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CRB · PPG 1.22

VILA NOVA · PPG 1.10

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.29 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

CRB (H) 48.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -8.2%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -11.4%

Vila Nova (A) 27.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

CRB face Vila Nova in Brazil - Serie B on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CRB a 48% chance, the draw 24% and Vila Nova 27%, so CRB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for CRB and 1.5 for Vila Nova (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CRB are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.10 for Vila Nova. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +66.5%.

CRB vs Vila Nova Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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