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Criciuma vs Nautico Recife Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 19:00

Criciuma

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nautico Recife

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-16.8%0-22.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.3%1-111.0%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-18.9%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.1%3-14.8%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-12.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.8% 58.1% 1.72 -5.7%

Draw 25.0% 30.3% 3.30 -10.5%

Away win 20.2% 18.5% 5.40 +5.5%

Over 2.5 50.0% 47.6% 2.10 +5.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.3% 3.80 +5.4%

BTTS 48.5% 51.8% 1.93 -6.4%

Home O1.5 53.4% 52.4% 1.91 +2.0%

Away O1.5 20.1% 23.1% 4.33 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.3%

#2 2–0 13.2%

#3 1–1 11.0%

#4 0–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Criciuma1.6

Nautico Recife0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CRICIUMA · PPG 2.33

NAUTICO RECIFE · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Criciuma (H) 54.8%

ODDS 1.72 · IMPLIED 58.1% EV -5.7%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.5%

Nautico Recife (A) 20.2%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Criciuma face Nautico Recife in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Criciuma a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Nautico Recife 20%, so Criciuma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Criciuma and 0.7 for Nautico Recife (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Criciuma are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.10 for Nautico Recife. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.4%.

Criciuma vs Nautico Recife Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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