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Londrina vs Novorizontino Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 21:30

Londrina

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Novorizontino

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-19.4%0-26.4%0-32.9%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.0%1-112.3%1-28.4%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.9%2-18.1%2-25.5%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.6%3-13.5%3-22.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.2% 29.4% 3.40 +36.7%

Draw 25.4% 30.8% 3.25 -10.5%

Away win 34.4% 47.2% 2.12 -27.1%

Over 2.5 53.9% 47.6% 2.10 +13.2%

Over 3.5 32.8% 26.3% 3.80 +24.6%

BTTS 55.4% 54.6% 1.83 +1.4%

Home O1.5 38.5% 32.3% 3.10 +19.4%

Away O1.5 41.9% 44.4% 2.25 -5.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.4%

A 34% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 6.9%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 0–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Londrina1.3

Novorizontino1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LONDRINA · PPG 1.33

NOVORIZONTINO · PPG 1.30

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Londrina (H) 40.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +36.7%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.5%

Novorizontino (A) 34.4%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -27.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Londrina face Novorizontino in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Londrina a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Novorizontino 34%, so Londrina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Londrina and 1.4 for Novorizontino (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Londrina are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.30 for Novorizontino. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +35.9%.

Londrina vs Novorizontino Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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