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São Bernardo vs Ceara Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 19:00

São Bernardo

PPG 1.10 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ceara

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 42.0% — a clear edge.

+26.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.1%0-18.6%0-22.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.1%1-111.8%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-18.1%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.7%3-13.7%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-11.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 42.0% 2.38 +26.9%

Draw 26.6% 35.5% 2.82 -15.0%

Away win 20.2% 29.4% 3.40 -18.8%

Over 2.5 43.6% 40.0% 2.50 +9.0%

Over 3.5 23.0% 21.1% 4.75 +5.5%

BTTS 48.5% 51.3% 1.95 -5.4%

Home O1.5 39.0% 37.7% 2.65 +3.4%

Away O1.5 20.0% 29.0% 3.45 -18.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 53% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.1%

#2 0–0 13.1%

#3 1–1 11.8%

#4 2–0 12.5%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

São Bernardo1.4

Ceara0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SÃO BERNARDO · PPG 1.10

CEARA · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

São Bernardo (H) 53.3%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +26.9%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -15.0%

Ceara (A) 20.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

São Bernardo face Ceara in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives São Bernardo a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Ceara 20%, so São Bernardo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for São Bernardo and 0.7 for Ceara (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, São Bernardo are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 0.78 for Ceara. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +13.7%.

São Bernardo vs Ceara Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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