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Botafogo SP vs Operario PR Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 22:00

Botafogo SP

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Operario PR

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.1%0-111.9%0-25.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.7%1-113.4%1-26.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.3%2-17.5%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.1%3-12.8%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.9% 44.6% 2.24 -10.6%

Draw 30.4% 34.7% 2.88 -12.4%

Away win 29.7% 27.4% 3.65 +5.0%

Over 2.5 43.2% 38.5% 2.60 +12.3%

Over 3.5 22.8% 19.0% 5.25 +11.8%

BTTS 47.8% 48.8% 2.05 -2.0%

Home O1.5 38.4% 38.2% 2.62 +0.6%

Away O1.5 26.6% 26.3% 3.80 +0.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 121 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.8%

H 40% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 13.1%

#3 1–0 14.7%

#4 0–1 11.9%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botafogo SP1.1

Operario PR0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.2% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTAFOGO SP · PPG 1.00

OPERARIO PR · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Botafogo SP (H) 39.9%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV -10.6%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -12.4%

Operario PR (A) 29.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Botafogo SP face Operario PR in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botafogo SP a 40% chance, the draw 30% and Operario PR 30%, so Botafogo SP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Botafogo SP and 0.9 for Operario PR (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botafogo SP are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.40 for Operario PR. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Botafogo SP vs Operario PR Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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