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Cuiaba vs Vila Nova Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 20:00

Cuiaba

PPG 1.17 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Vila Nova

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.5%0-118.5%0-26.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.3%1-111.9%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-05.2%2-13.8%2-21.4%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.1%3-10.8%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.7% 45.9% 2.18 -33.1%

Draw 37.9% 34.5% 2.90 +9.9%

Away win 31.5% 26.7% 3.75 +18.1%

Over 2.5 21.2% 37.0% 2.70 -25.7%

Over 3.5 12.2% 18.2% 5.50 -19.7%

BTTS 44.2% 46.5% 2.15 -5.0%

Home O1.5 33.0% 37.7% 2.65 -12.6%

Away O1.5 24.3% 25.0% 4.00 -1.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 121 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob44.2%

D 38% / xG 0.6-0.7 / U2.5 21% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.5%

#2 0–1 18.5%

#3 1–0✓ 16.3%

#4 1–1 11.9%

#5 0–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cuiaba0.6

Vila Nova0.7

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 21.2% · O3.5 PROB 12.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CUIABA · PPG 1.17

VILA NOVA · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.83) vs Home AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Cuiaba (H) 30.7%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -33.1%

Draw 37.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +9.9%

Vila Nova (A) 31.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cuiaba face Vila Nova in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cuiaba a 31% chance, the draw 38% and Vila Nova 32%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for Cuiaba and 0.7 for Vila Nova (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 21% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cuiaba are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.83 for Vila Nova. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Cuiaba vs Vila Nova Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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