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Athletic Club vs Goias Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Brazil - Serie B · Regular Season - 13 · Sunday, June 14, 2026, 19:00

Athletic Club

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Goias

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.6%0-110.1%0-23.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.0%1-112.6%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.7%2-17.9%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.5%3-13.3%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 2.50 +21.8%

Draw 28.3% 3.05 -8.2%

Away win 23.0% 2.94 -19.4%

Over 2.5 43.2% 2.50 +8.0%

Over 3.5 22.8% 5.00 +8.4%

BTTS 47.8% 2.00 -4.4%

Win probability 1X2

Athletic Club (H) 48.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +21.8%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -8.2%

Goias (A) 23.0%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV -19.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 106.1%

Bet Hit 56%

Hunt pick CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%HUNT CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.8%

H 49% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.6%

#2 1–0 17.0%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 2–0 10.7%

#5 0–1 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athletic Club1.3

Goias0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.2% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLETIC CLUB · PPG 1.50

GOIAS · PPG 0.83

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.83)

Match Preview & Prediction

Athletic Club face Goias in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athletic Club a 49% chance, the draw 28% and Goias 23%, so Athletic Club are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Athletic Club and 0.7 for Goias (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athletic Club are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.83 for Goias. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.8%.

Athletic Club vs Goias Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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