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Keflavik vs Hafnarfjordur Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Iceland - Úrvalsdeild · Regular Season - 10 · Sunday, June 14, 2026, 17:00

Keflavik

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hafnarfjordur

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-13.1%0-22.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-05.1%1-17.4%1-25.4%1-32.7%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.1%2-18.9%2-26.5%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.8%3-17.1%3-25.2%3-32.5%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-17.4%4+-25.4%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 1.70 -8.2%

Draw 22.4% 4.10 -4.9%

Away win 23.6% 3.75 -6.9%

Over 2.5 65.8% 1.35 -11.2%

Over 3.5 42.8% 1.85 -20.8%

BTTS 63.7% 1.35 -14.0%

Win probability 1X2

Keflavik (H) 54.0%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -8.2%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -4.9%

Hafnarfjordur (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 90%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 30%

Hunt pick CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%HUNT CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.7%

H 54% / xG 2.4-1.5 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.9%

#2 1–1 7.4%

#3 3–1 7.1%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Keflavik2.4

Hafnarfjordur1.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KEFLAVIK · PPG 1.25

HAFNARFJORDUR · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.25) vs P(Home)=54.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Keflavik face Hafnarfjordur in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Keflavik a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Hafnarfjordur 24%, so Keflavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Keflavik and 1.5 for Hafnarfjordur (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Keflavik are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.33 for Hafnarfjordur. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +2.3%.

Keflavik vs Hafnarfjordur Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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