Today / Iceland - Úrvalsdeild / KA Akureyri vs Thor Akureyri

KA Akureyri vs Thor Akureyri Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 16 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 19:15

KA Akureyri

PPG 0.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Thor Akureyri

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-12.8%0-21.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.1%1-17.2%1-24.2%1-31.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.9%2-19.2%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.7%3-17.9%3-24.6%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-08.0%4+-19.3%4+-25.4%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.1% 60.6% 1.65 -2.5%

Draw 20.9% 24.4% 4.10 -8.6%

Away win 19.9% 25.0% 4.00 -12.2%

Over 2.5 67.0% 72.5% 1.38 -7.5%

Over 3.5 44.5% 50.0% 2.00 -11.0%

BTTS 62.7% 71.4% 1.40 -12.2%

Home O1.5 63.3% 70.4% 1.42 -10.1%

Away O1.5 36.4% 43.5% 2.30 -16.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.7%

H 59% / xG 2.6-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%

#2 1–1 7.2%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 3–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KA Akureyri2.6

Thor Akureyri1.2

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KA AKUREYRI · PPG 0.86

THOR AKUREYRI · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.40 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

KA Akureyri (H) 59.1%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -2.5%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -8.6%

Thor Akureyri (A) 19.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

KA Akureyri face Thor Akureyri in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KA Akureyri a 59% chance, the draw 21% and Thor Akureyri 20%, so KA Akureyri are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for KA Akureyri and 1.2 for Thor Akureyri (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KA Akureyri are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 0.57 for Thor Akureyri.

KA Akureyri vs Thor Akureyri Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland - Úrvalsdeild Predictions