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IA Akranes vs Vikingur Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 14:00

IA Akranes

PPG 1.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vikingur Reykjavik

PPG 2.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 69.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-16.8%0-29.3%0-38.4%0-4+11.0%1 1-02.4%1-16.6%1-29.0%1-38.1%1-4+10.6%2 2-01.2%2-13.2%2-24.3%2-33.9%2-4+5.1%3 3-00.4%3-11.0%3-21.4%3-31.3%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.2% 21.1% 4.75 -22.4%

Draw 17.1% 23.8% 4.20 -16.9%

Away win 69.7% 66.7% 1.50 +4.5%

Over 2.5 67.0% 76.9% 1.30 -12.9%

Over 3.5 44.8% 57.8% 1.73 -22.5%

BTTS 61.8% 73.5% 1.36 -16.0%

Home O1.5 32.6% 44.4% 2.25 -26.7%

Away O1.5 67.8% 75.2% 1.33 -9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 73%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob61.8%

A 70% / xG 1.0-2.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 9.3%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 0–3 8.4%

#4 1–3 8.1%

#5 1–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IA Akranes1.0

Vikingur Reykjavik2.7

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

IA AKRANES · PPG 1.14

VIKINGUR REYKJAVIK · PPG 2.62

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.75 for Away, form 1.14 vs 2.62

Win probability 1X2

IA Akranes (H) 13.2%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -22.4%

Draw 17.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -16.9%

Vikingur Reykjavik (A) 69.7%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV +4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

IA Akranes face Vikingur Reykjavik in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IA Akranes a 13% chance, the draw 17% and Vikingur Reykjavik 70%, so Vikingur Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for IA Akranes and 2.7 for Vikingur Reykjavik (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IA Akranes are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 2.62 for Vikingur Reykjavik.

IA Akranes vs Vikingur Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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