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IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Fram Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 14:00

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fram Reykjavik

PPG 2.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.7% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-12.6%0-23.4%0-32.9%0-4+3.5%1 1-02.0%1-15.3%1-26.8%1-35.8%1-4+7.0%2 2-02.1%2-15.3%2-26.8%2-35.9%2-4+7.0%3 3-01.4%3-13.6%3-24.6%3-33.9%3-4+4.7%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.8%4+-23.7%4+-33.1%4+-4+3.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.6% 28.2% 3.55 +26.4%

Draw 21.6% 25.0% 4.00 -8.2%

Away win 42.8% 56.5% 1.77 -24.2%

Over 2.5 72.7% 70.4% 1.42 +3.2%

Over 3.5 51.2% 47.6% 2.10 +7.5%

BTTS 70.3% 70.4% 1.42 -0.2%

Home O1.5 53.6% 45.5% 2.20 +17.9%

Away O1.5 67.8% 66.7% 1.50 +1.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob70.3%

A 43% / xG 2.0-2.6 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.8%

#2 1–2 6.8%

#3 1–1 5.3%

#4 2–3 5.9%

#5 1–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IBV Vestmannaeyjar2.0

Fram Reykjavik2.6

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 51.2%

Form & verdict PPG

IBV VESTMANNAEYJAR · PPG 1.38

FRAM REYKJAVIK · PPG 2.12

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.56 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (H) 35.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +26.4%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -8.2%

Fram Reykjavik (A) 42.8%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

IBV Vestmannaeyjar face Fram Reykjavik in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IBV Vestmannaeyjar a 36% chance, the draw 22% and Fram Reykjavik 43%, so Fram Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for IBV Vestmannaeyjar and 2.6 for Fram Reykjavik (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IBV Vestmannaeyjar are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 2.12 for Fram Reykjavik. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +27.9%.

IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Fram Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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