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IA Akranes vs Stjarnan Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 19:15

IA Akranes

PPG 0.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Stjarnan

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-15.3%0-24.4%0-32.4%0-4+1.5%1 1-05.7%1-19.5%1-27.9%1-34.3%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.1%2-18.5%2-27.0%2-33.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.0%3-15.0%3-24.2%3-32.3%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.3%4+-22.8%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 44.4% 2.25 +1.5%

Draw 22.6% 25.0% 4.00 -5.8%

Away win 32.3% 40.0% 2.50 -19.3%

Over 2.5 63.7% 78.1% 1.28 -18.5%

Over 3.5 41.3% 58.8% 1.70 -29.8%

BTTS 63.9% 80.0% 1.25 -20.1%

Home O1.5 53.5% 65.4% 1.53 -18.1%

Away O1.5 49.0% 61.7% 1.62 -20.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.9%

H 45% / xG 1.8-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 2–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IA Akranes1.8

Stjarnan1.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

IA AKRANES · PPG 0.83

STJARNAN · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

IA Akranes (H) 45.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +1.5%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -5.8%

Stjarnan (A) 32.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -19.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

IA Akranes face Stjarnan in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IA Akranes a 45% chance, the draw 23% and Stjarnan 32%, so IA Akranes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for IA Akranes and 1.7 for Stjarnan (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IA Akranes are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.14 for Stjarnan.

IA Akranes vs Stjarnan Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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