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IA Akranes vs Breidablik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 14:00

IA Akranes

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Breidablik

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.4% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-13.8%0-24.5%0-33.6%0-4+3.8%1 1-02.8%1-16.6%1-27.9%1-36.3%1-4+6.6%2 2-02.4%2-15.8%2-27.0%2-35.6%2-4+5.8%3 3-01.4%3-13.4%3-24.1%3-33.3%3-4+3.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-12.2%4+-22.7%4+-32.1%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.5% 42.6% 2.35 -23.6%

Draw 22.1% 25.0% 4.00 -7.0%

Away win 45.4% 42.6% 2.35 +6.7%

Over 2.5 72.4% 78.1% 1.28 -7.3%

Over 3.5 49.0% 58.8% 1.70 -16.7%

BTTS 69.1% 80.0% 1.25 -13.6%

Home O1.5 53.6% 63.7% 1.57 -15.8%

Away O1.5 69.2% 63.7% 1.57 +8.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob69.1%

A 45% / xG 1.8-2.4 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2✓ 7.9%

#2 1–1 6.6%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–3 6.3%

#5 2–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IA Akranes1.8

Breidablik2.4

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.0%

Form & verdict PPG

IA AKRANES · PPG 1.00

BREIDABLIK · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

IA Akranes (H) 32.5%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -23.6%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.0%

Breidablik (A) 45.4%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

IA Akranes face Breidablik in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IA Akranes a 33% chance, the draw 22% and Breidablik 45%, so Breidablik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for IA Akranes and 2.4 for Breidablik (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IA Akranes are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Breidablik. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +24.1%. This match finished 1-2.

IA Akranes vs Breidablik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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