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Hafnarfjordur vs Stjarnan Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 13 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 19:15

Hafnarfjordur

PPG 0.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Stjarnan

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.1% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-13.6%0-24.5%0-33.7%0-4+4.3%1 1-02.5%1-16.2%1-27.8%1-36.5%1-4+7.5%2 2-02.2%2-15.4%2-26.8%2-35.7%2-4+6.5%3 3-01.3%3-13.2%3-24.0%3-33.3%3-4+3.8%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-12.0%4+-22.6%4+-32.1%4+-4+2.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.2% 43.5% 2.30 -30.5%

Draw 21.2% 25.0% 4.00 -9.1%

Away win 48.6% 40.8% 2.45 +19.1%

Over 2.5 71.1% 76.9% 1.30 -7.6%

Over 3.5 49.0% 56.5% 1.77 -13.3%

BTTS 69.1% 78.1% 1.28 -11.6%

Home O1.5 53.6% 62.5% 1.60 -14.2%

Away O1.5 69.2% 60.6% 1.65 +14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob69.1%

A 49% / xG 1.7-2.5 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.8%

#2 1–1 6.2%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 1–3 6.5%

#5 2–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hafnarfjordur1.7

Stjarnan2.5

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.1% · O3.5 PROB 49.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HAFNARFJORDUR · PPG 0.40

STJARNAN · PPG 1.40

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs Home POOR (0.40)

Win probability 1X2

Hafnarfjordur (H) 30.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -30.5%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -9.1%

Stjarnan (A) 48.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +19.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hafnarfjordur face Stjarnan in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hafnarfjordur a 30% chance, the draw 21% and Stjarnan 49%, so Stjarnan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Hafnarfjordur and 2.5 for Stjarnan (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hafnarfjordur are averaging 0.40 points per game versus 1.40 for Stjarnan. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +38.9%.

Hafnarfjordur vs Stjarnan Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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