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IBV vs Valur Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 13 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 16:00

IBV

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLL

UPCOMING

Valur

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.4% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-12.4%0-22.8%0-32.1%0-4+2.1%1 1-02.4%1-15.5%1-26.3%1-34.8%1-4+4.7%2 2-02.7%2-16.2%2-27.1%2-35.4%2-4+5.3%3 3-02.0%3-14.7%3-25.3%3-34.1%3-4+4.0%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-14.5%4+-25.1%4+-33.9%4+-4+3.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 45.5% 2.20 -2.3%

Draw 21.5% 26.3% 3.80 -11.0%

Away win 34.2% 38.5% 2.60 -11.1%

Over 2.5 72.4% 70.4% 1.42 +2.8%

Over 3.5 52.4% 47.6% 2.10 +10.0%

BTTS 69.1% 73.5% 1.36 -6.0%

Home O1.5 61.2% 58.8% 1.70 +4.0%

Away O1.5 69.2% 54.1% 1.85 +28.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -8.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob69.1%

H 44% / xG 2.3-2.3 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.1%

#2 1–1 5.5%

#3 1–2 6.3%

#4 2–1 6.2%

#5 2–3 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IBV2.3

Valur2.3

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.4% · O3.5 PROB 52.4%

Form & verdict PPG

IBV · PPG 1.17

VALUR · PPG 1.50

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.17) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

IBV (H) 44.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -2.3%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -11.0%

Valur (A) 34.2%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

IBV face Valur in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IBV a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Valur 34%, so IBV are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for IBV and 2.3 for Valur (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IBV are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.50 for Valur. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +28.0%.

IBV vs Valur Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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