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Vikingur Reykjavik vs Keflavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 20:00

Vikingur Reykjavik

PPG 2.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Keflavik

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.8% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-10.5%0-20.2%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-02.4%1-12.0%1-20.9%1-30.2%1-4+0.1%2 2-05.2%2-14.4%2-21.9%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.5%3-16.4%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-027.2%4+-123.1%4+-29.8%4+-32.8%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.3% 80.0% 1.25 -7.1%

Draw 16.6% 17.4% 5.75 -2.7%

Away win 9.2% 12.2% 8.20 -14.7%

Over 2.5 76.8% 78.1% 1.28 -1.7%

Over 3.5 53.4% 58.8% 1.70 -9.2%

BTTS 55.4% 65.4% 1.53 -15.2%

Home O1.5 77.8% 84.7% 1.18 -8.2%

Away O1.5 20.1% 31.3% 3.20 -21.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -7.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)4.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.4%

H 74% / xG 4.4-0.8 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 8.2%

#2 3–0 7.5%

#3 5–0 7.2%

#4 4–1 7.0%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vikingur Reykjavik4.4

Keflavik0.8

COMBINED 5.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.8% · O3.5 PROB 53.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VIKINGUR REYKJAVIK · PPG 2.71

KEFLAVIK · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.52 for Home, form 2.71 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Vikingur Reykjavik (H) 74.3%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -7.1%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -2.7%

Keflavik (A) 9.2%

ODDS 8.20 · IMPLIED 12.2% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vikingur Reykjavik face Keflavik in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vikingur Reykjavik a 74% chance, the draw 17% and Keflavik 9%, so Vikingur Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.4 for Vikingur Reykjavik and 0.8 for Keflavik (5.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vikingur Reykjavik are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 1.00 for Keflavik. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +0.5%.

Vikingur Reykjavik vs Keflavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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