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Vikingur Reykjavik vs Keflavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 16 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 20:00

Vikingur Reykjavik

PPG 2.71 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWD

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Keflavik

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 83% chance

Model probability 77.8% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-10.5%0-20.2%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-02.6%1-12.2%1-20.9%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-05.5%2-14.6%2-21.9%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.9%3-16.6%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-026.7%4+-122.3%4+-29.3%4+-32.6%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.0% 82.0% 1.22 -9.7%

Draw 16.8% 17.4% 5.75 -2.0%

Away win 9.2% 11.1% 9.00 -10.3%

Over 2.5 75.4% 80.0% 1.25 -5.8%

Over 3.5 53.4% 60.6% 1.65 -11.9%

BTTS 55.4% 67.6% 1.48 -18.0%

Home O1.5 77.8% 85.5% 1.17 -9.0%

Away O1.5 20.1% 32.3% 3.10 -22.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -8.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)4.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.4%

H 74% / xG 4.3-0.8 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 8.4%

#2 3–0 7.9%

#3 5–0 7.2%

#4 4–1 7.0%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vikingur Reykjavik4.3

Keflavik0.8

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.4% · O3.5 PROB 53.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VIKINGUR REYKJAVIK · PPG 2.71

KEFLAVIK · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

83%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.42 for Home, form 2.71 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Vikingur Reykjavik (H) 74.0%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -9.7%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -2.0%

Keflavik (A) 9.2%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vikingur Reykjavik face Keflavik in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vikingur Reykjavik a 74% chance, the draw 17% and Keflavik 9%, so Vikingur Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.3 for Vikingur Reykjavik and 0.8 for Keflavik (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vikingur Reykjavik are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 1.00 for Keflavik. This match finished 5-1.

Vikingur Reykjavik vs Keflavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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