Today / Iceland - Úrvalsdeild / Fram Reykjavik vs FH hafnarfjordur

Fram Reykjavik vs FH hafnarfjordur Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 19:15

Fram Reykjavik

PPG 2.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

FH hafnarfjordur

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.0%0-20.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.7%1-13.6%1-22.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.5%2 2-04.8%2-16.4%2-24.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.7%3-17.5%3-25.0%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-012.5%4+-116.6%4+-211.0%4+-34.9%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.8% 67.6% 1.48 -4.1%

Draw 16.8% 21.7% 4.60 -13.6%

Away win 18.4% 20.0% 5.00 -4.8%

Over 2.5 76.0% 78.1% 1.28 -2.7%

Over 3.5 53.4% 58.8% 1.70 -9.2%

BTTS 69.3% 74.1% 1.35 -6.5%

Home O1.5 77.3% 78.1% 1.28 -1.1%

Away O1.5 41.9% 43.5% 2.30 -3.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 77%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob69.3%

H 65% / xG 3.5-1.3 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.5%

#2 4–1 6.7%

#3 2–1 6.4%

#4 3–0 5.7%

#5 4–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fram Reykjavik3.5

FH hafnarfjordur1.3

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.0% · O3.5 PROB 53.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FRAM REYKJAVIK · PPG 2.29

FH HAFNARFJORDUR · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.21 for Home, form 2.29 vs 0.71 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Fram Reykjavik (H) 64.8%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -4.1%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -13.6%

FH hafnarfjordur (A) 18.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fram Reykjavik face FH hafnarfjordur in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fram Reykjavik a 65% chance, the draw 17% and FH hafnarfjordur 18%, so Fram Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Fram Reykjavik and 1.3 for FH hafnarfjordur (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fram Reykjavik are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.71 for FH hafnarfjordur. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +9.8%.

Fram Reykjavik vs FH hafnarfjordur Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland - Úrvalsdeild Predictions