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Breidablik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 16 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 18:00

Breidablik

PPG 2.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-11.8%0-21.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-03.9%1-15.3%1-23.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.8%2 2-05.8%2-17.9%2-25.4%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.7%3-17.8%3-25.3%3-32.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-112.1%4+-28.3%4+-33.8%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.5% 60.6% 1.65 +1.5%

Draw 17.8% 23.8% 4.20 -15.1%

Away win 20.7% 25.6% 3.90 -11.6%

Over 2.5 72.6% 75.2% 1.33 -3.4%

Over 3.5 52.0% 54.1% 1.85 -3.8%

BTTS 64.5% 73.5% 1.36 -12.3%

Home O1.5 77.3% 71.4% 1.40 +8.2%

Away O1.5 41.9% 46.5% 2.15 -9.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob64.5%

H 62% / xG 3.0-1.4 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.9%

#2 3–1 7.8%

#3 1–1 5.3%

#4 4–1 5.8%

#5 2–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Breidablik3.0

IBV Vestmannaeyjar1.4

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BREIDABLIK · PPG 2.29

IBV VESTMANNAEYJAR · PPG 0.71

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.61 for Home, form 2.29 vs 0.71 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Breidablik (H) 61.5%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV +1.5%

Draw 17.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -15.1%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (A) 20.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Breidablik face IBV Vestmannaeyjar in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Breidablik a 62% chance, the draw 18% and IBV Vestmannaeyjar 21%, so Breidablik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Breidablik and 1.4 for IBV Vestmannaeyjar (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Breidablik are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.71 for IBV Vestmannaeyjar. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +24.3%.

Breidablik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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