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Gagra vs Dinamo Tbilisi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 16:00

Gagra

PPG 0.75 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Dinamo Tbilisi

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-115.4%0-211.3%0-35.5%0-4+2.8%1 1-08.3%1-112.1%1-28.9%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-03.3%2-14.8%2-23.5%2-31.7%2-4+0.9%3 3-00.9%3-11.3%3-20.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.2% 28.6% 3.50 -13.4%

Draw 29.3% 33.3% 3.00 -7.3%

Away win 48.4% 51.3% 1.95 -5.6%

Over 2.5 47.7% 47.6% 2.10 +0.2%

Over 3.5 28.1% 28.6% 3.50 -1.0%

BTTS 47.8% 54.1% 1.85 -11.6%

Home O1.5 33.0% 29.9% 3.34 +10.2%

Away O1.5 47.7% 46.9% 2.13 +1.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -5.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob47.8%

A 48% / xG 0.8-1.5 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 0–1 15.4%

#3 0–0 10.6%

#4 0–2 11.3%

#5 1–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gagra0.8

Dinamo Tbilisi1.5

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GAGRA · PPG 0.75

DINAMO TBILISI · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Gagra (H) 22.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -13.4%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.3%

Dinamo Tbilisi (A) 48.4%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gagra face Dinamo Tbilisi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gagra a 22% chance, the draw 29% and Dinamo Tbilisi 48%, so Dinamo Tbilisi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Gagra and 1.5 for Dinamo Tbilisi (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gagra are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 2.00 for Dinamo Tbilisi. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Gagra vs Dinamo Tbilisi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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