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Dinamo Tbilisi vs Samgurali Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Regular Season - 18 ·Thursday, June 18, 2026, 16:00

Dinamo Tbilisi

PPG 1.13 · HOME

5 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Samgurali

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-17.1%0-23.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.8%1-111.7%1-25.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.5%2-19.6%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.7%3-15.2%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 51.6% 1.73 -10.7%

Draw 24.6% 3.20 -12.8%

Away win 23.8% 4.33 +1.8%

Over 2.5 54.0% 1.90 +2.6%

Over 3.5 32.8% 3.05 +0.0%

BTTS 55.9% 1.75 -2.2%

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Tbilisi (H) 51.6%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -10.7%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.8%

Samgurali (A) 23.8%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.9%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 2–0 10.5%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Tbilisi1.6

Samgurali0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO TBILISI · PPG 1.13

SAMGURALI · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away POOR (0.88)

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Tbilisi face Samgurali in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Thursday, June 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Tbilisi a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Samgurali 24%, so Dinamo Tbilisi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Dinamo Tbilisi and 0.9 for Samgurali (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Tbilisi are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 0.88 for Samgurali. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.6%. This match finished 5-3.

Dinamo Tbilisi vs Samgurali Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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