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Dinamo Tbilisi vs Dinamo Batumi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Matchday 19 ·Tuesday, June 23, 2026, 17:00

Dinamo Tbilisi

PPG 1.33 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Dinamo Batumi

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+18.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-16.0%0-23.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.3%1-110.8%1-26.2%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.1%3-15.9%3-23.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-14.0%4+-22.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 57.1% 1.75 -6.6%

Draw 22.6% 31.3% 3.20 -16.6%

Away win 24.0% 23.8% 4.20 +0.5%

Over 2.5 64.1% 54.1% 1.85 +18.6%

Over 3.5 39.8% 34.7% 2.88 +14.6%

BTTS 61.6% 57.1% 1.75 +7.8%

Home O1.5 52.6% 56.2% 1.78 -6.4%

Away O1.5 36.3% 29.9% 3.34 +21.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -5.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.6%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1✓ 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 0–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Tbilisi1.8

Dinamo Batumi1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO TBILISI · PPG 1.33

DINAMO BATUMI · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Tbilisi (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -6.6%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -16.6%

Dinamo Batumi (A) 24.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Tbilisi face Dinamo Batumi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Tuesday, June 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Tbilisi a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Dinamo Batumi 24%, so Dinamo Tbilisi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Dinamo Tbilisi and 1.2 for Dinamo Batumi (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Tbilisi are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.11 for Dinamo Batumi. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +21.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Dinamo Tbilisi vs Dinamo Batumi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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