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Dila Gori vs Spaeri Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Regular Season - 18 ·Tuesday, June 16, 2026, 16:00

Dila Gori

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Spaeri

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.2%0-114.7%0-27.1%0-32.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.9%1-113.5%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.4%2-16.2%2-23.0%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.9%3-11.9%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.6% 54.1% 1.85 -37.8%

Draw 30.8% 33.3% 3.00 -7.6%

Away win 35.6% 26.3% 3.80 +35.3%

Over 2.5 43.6% 51.3% 1.95 -15.0%

Over 3.5 27.0% 32.5% 3.08 -10.1%

BTTS 48.5% 57.1% 1.75 -15.1%

Home O1.5 32.4% 52.4% 1.91 -38.1%

Away O1.5 30.1% 31.1% 3.22 -3.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -5.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.5%

D 31% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.2%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 14.7%

#4 1–0 13.9%

#5 0–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dila Gori0.9

Spaeri1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DILA GORI · PPG 1.00

SPAERI · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Dila Gori (H) 33.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -37.8%

Draw 30.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.6%

Spaeri (A) 35.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +35.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dila Gori face Spaeri in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Tuesday, June 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dila Gori a 34% chance, the draw 31% and Spaeri 36%, so Spaeri are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Dila Gori and 1.0 for Spaeri (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dila Gori are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.13 for Spaeri. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +35.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Dila Gori vs Spaeri Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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