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Dila Gori vs Rustavi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Matchday 19 ·Monday, June 22, 2026, 15:00

Dila Gori

PPG 1.22 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Rustavi

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.3%0-116.0%0-27.0%0-32.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.1%1-113.2%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-06.2%2-15.4%2-22.4%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.7%3-11.5%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.6% 44.4% 2.25 -26.7%

Draw 32.4% 35.7% 2.80 -9.3%

Away win 35.0% 33.3% 3.00 +5.0%

Over 2.5 37.4% 45.5% 2.20 -17.7%

Over 3.5 22.9% 25.8% 3.88 -6.7%

BTTS 48.5% 54.1% 1.85 -10.3%

Home O1.5 32.4% 41.7% 2.40 -22.2%

Away O1.5 27.2% 33.6% 2.98 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -5.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.5%

D 32% / xG 0.8-0.9 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.3%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–1 16.0%

#4 1–0 15.1%

#5 0–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dila Gori0.8

Rustavi0.9

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DILA GORI · PPG 1.22

RUSTAVI · PPG 1.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.22), Away AVERAGE (1.22)

Win probability 1X2

Dila Gori (H) 32.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -26.7%

Draw 32.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -9.3%

Rustavi (A) 35.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dila Gori face Rustavi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Monday, June 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dila Gori a 33% chance, the draw 32% and Rustavi 35%, so Rustavi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Dila Gori and 0.9 for Rustavi (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dila Gori are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.22 for Rustavi. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Dila Gori vs Rustavi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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