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Rustavi vs Meshakhte Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 15:00

Rustavi

PPG 2.25 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Meshakhte

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-15.8%0-21.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.8%1-110.1%1-23.0%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.6%2-18.7%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.4%3-15.0%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-13.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.7% 69.4% 1.44 -15.5%

Draw 22.2% 28.6% 3.50 -13.4%

Away win 19.1% 15.4% 6.50 +14.5%

Over 2.5 48.9% 48.8% 2.05 +0.2%

Over 3.5 28.1% 26.3% 3.80 +4.1%

BTTS 47.8% 47.6% 2.10 +0.4%

Home O1.5 54.8% 58.8% 1.70 -6.8%

Away O1.5 18.0% 19.6% 5.10 -4.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -5.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.8%

H 59% / xG 1.7-0.6 / U2.5 49% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 16.8%

#2 2–0 14.6%

#3 1–1 10.1%

#4 0–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rustavi1.7

Meshakhte0.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

RUSTAVI · PPG 2.25

MESHAKHTE · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=58.7%

Win probability 1X2

Rustavi (H) 58.7%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -15.5%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -13.4%

Meshakhte (A) 19.1%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rustavi face Meshakhte in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rustavi a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Meshakhte 19%, so Rustavi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Rustavi and 0.6 for Meshakhte (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rustavi are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.75 for Meshakhte. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Rustavi vs Meshakhte Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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