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Gagra vs Samgurali Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Regular Season - 19 ·Wednesday, June 24, 2026, 16:00

Gagra

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Samgurali

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.0% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+15.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-18.3%0-25.3%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.6%1-112.1%1-27.7%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-18.8%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.4%3-14.3%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 2.75 +24.3%

Draw 24.6% 3.00 -15.7%

Away win 30.2% 2.30 -30.5%

Over 2.5 61.0% 1.90 +15.9%

Over 3.5 37.3% 2.92 +8.9%

BTTS 60.2% 1.62 -2.5%

Win probability 1X2

Gagra (H) 45.2%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +24.3%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.7%

Samgurali (A) 30.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -30.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 1.7%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.2%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 0–0 6.6%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gagra1.5

Samgurali1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GAGRA · PPG 1.00

SAMGURALI · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.78)

Match Preview & Prediction

Gagra face Samgurali in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Wednesday, June 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gagra a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Samgurali 30%, so Gagra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Gagra and 1.3 for Samgurali (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gagra are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.78 for Samgurali. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.3%.

Gagra vs Samgurali Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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