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Torpedo Kutaisi vs Dinamo Batumi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Regular Season - 18 ·Wednesday, June 17, 2026, 17:00

Torpedo Kutaisi

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Dinamo Batumi

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-15.6%0-22.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.5%1-110.5%1-24.8%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.8%3-16.2%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-14.5%4+-22.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 66.7% 1.50 -20.5%

Draw 23.7% 27.8% 3.60 -8.8%

Away win 23.4% 18.2% 5.50 +17.2%

Over 2.5 54.0% 55.6% 1.80 -2.8%

Over 3.5 32.6% 37.0% 2.70 -12.0%

BTTS 52.6% 55.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Home O1.5 55.9% 62.5% 1.60 -10.6%

Away O1.5 27.9% 26.7% 3.75 +2.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -5.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 53% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–0 10.9%

#3 1–0 11.5%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Torpedo Kutaisi1.9

Dinamo Batumi0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TORPEDO KUTAISI · PPG 1.75

DINAMO BATUMI · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=53.0%

Win probability 1X2

Torpedo Kutaisi (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -20.5%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.8%

Dinamo Batumi (A) 23.4%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Torpedo Kutaisi face Dinamo Batumi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Torpedo Kutaisi a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Dinamo Batumi 23%, so Torpedo Kutaisi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Torpedo Kutaisi and 0.9 for Dinamo Batumi (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Torpedo Kutaisi are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.88 for Dinamo Batumi. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.2%. This match finished 2-3.

Torpedo Kutaisi vs Dinamo Batumi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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