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Samgurali vs Torpedo Kutaisi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 17:00

Samgurali

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Torpedo Kutaisi

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-112.4%0-29.4%0-34.8%0-4+2.5%1 1-08.1%1-112.2%1-29.3%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.0%2-16.0%2-24.6%2-32.3%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.3%3-12.0%3-21.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.0% 30.3% 3.30 -2.6%

Draw 24.8% 31.3% 3.20 -12.4%

Away win 46.2% 51.3% 1.95 -9.9%

Over 2.5 53.8% 54.1% 1.85 -0.5%

Over 3.5 32.5% 32.3% 3.10 +0.8%

BTTS 55.7% 58.8% 1.70 -5.3%

Home O1.5 36.7% 33.9% 2.95 +8.3%

Away O1.5 49.4% 48.8% 2.05 +1.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -5.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.7%

A 46% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–1 12.4%

#3 0–0 8.2%

#4 0–2 9.4%

#5 1–2 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Samgurali1.0

Torpedo Kutaisi1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SAMGURALI · PPG 1.75

TORPEDO KUTAISI · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Samgurali (H) 29.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -2.6%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.4%

Torpedo Kutaisi (A) 46.2%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Samgurali face Torpedo Kutaisi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Samgurali a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Torpedo Kutaisi 46%, so Torpedo Kutaisi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Samgurali and 1.5 for Torpedo Kutaisi (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Samgurali are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.50 for Torpedo Kutaisi. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +8.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Samgurali vs Torpedo Kutaisi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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