Samgurali vs Torpedo Kutaisi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Georgia - Erovnuli Liga Regular Season - 17 26 May Stadium· Tsqaltubo Saturday, June 13, 2026 17:00

Samgurali PPG 1.75

VS PENDING

Torpedo Kutaisi PPG 1.50

HomeO15· +8.3% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Samgurali face Torpedo Kutaisi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Samgurali a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Torpedo Kutaisi 46%, so Torpedo Kutaisi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Samgurali and 1.5 for Torpedo Kutaisi (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Samgurali are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.50 for Torpedo Kutaisi. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +8.3%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 29.0%

Odds: 3.30 EV: -2.6%

Draw 24.8%

Odds: 3.20 EV: -12.4%

Away 46.2%

Odds: 1.95 EV: -9.9%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 53.8% Odds: 1.85 -0.5%

Over 3.5 32.5% Odds: 3.10 +0.8%

BTTS 55.7% Odds: 1.70 -5.3%

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1

2nd 0-1

3rd 0-0

4th 0-2

5th 1-2

Expected Goals (xG)

Samgurali

0.98

Torpedo Kutaisi

1.52

Model SuggestionBTTS -5.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -5.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: HomeO15 (+8.3%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5/Under 49%

BTTS/No 43%

Score Hit 43%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away GOOD (1.50)