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Meshakhte vs Gagra Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Matchday 18 ·Thursday, June 18, 2026, 13:30

Meshakhte

PPG 0.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Gagra

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 50.7% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-116.8%0-210.6%0-34.5%0-4+1.9%1 1-010.0%1-112.7%1-28.0%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-03.8%2-14.8%2-23.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-00.9%3-11.2%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.3% 31.3% 3.20 -19.1%

Draw 28.0% 34.5% 2.90 -11.3%

Away win 50.7% 47.6% 2.10 +6.5%

Over 2.5 47.6% 46.5% 2.15 +2.3%

Over 3.5 28.1% 26.7% 3.75 +3.2%

BTTS 48.5% 54.6% 1.83 -11.2%

Home O1.5 32.4% 32.3% 3.10 +0.4%

Away O1.5 34.4% 43.7% 2.29 -21.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -5.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.5%

A 51% / xG 0.8-1.3 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.3%

#2 0–1 16.8%

#3 1–1✓ 12.7%

#4 0–2 10.6%

#5 1–0 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Meshakhte0.8

Gagra1.3

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MESHAKHTE · PPG 0.50

GAGRA · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.38) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Meshakhte (H) 21.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -19.1%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.3%

Gagra (A) 50.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Meshakhte face Gagra in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Thursday, June 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Meshakhte a 21% chance, the draw 28% and Gagra 51%, so Gagra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Meshakhte and 1.3 for Gagra (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Meshakhte are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.38 for Gagra. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Meshakhte vs Gagra Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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