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Torpedo Kutaisi vs Spaeri Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Regular Season - 19 ·Monday, June 22, 2026, 17:00

Torpedo Kutaisi logo
Torpedo Kutaisi
PPG 1.56 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Spaeri logo
Spaeri
PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗
ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-15.9%0-22.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.8%1-110.8%1-25.4%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.9%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.1%3-16.0%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.2%4+-22.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV
Home win 52.9% 1.57 -17.0%
Draw 23.6% 3.50 -10.4%
Away win 23.5% 5.00 +10.5%
Over 2.5 61.1% 1.73 +5.7%
Over 3.5 37.0% 2.70 -0.1%
BTTS 55.9% 1.75 -2.2%

Win probability 1X2

Torpedo Kutaisi (H) 52.9%
ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -17.0%
Draw 23.6%
ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.4%
Spaeri (A) 23.5%
ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +10.5%

League track record

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%
O2.5 52%
BTTS 46%
Score Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.9%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%
#2 2–0 9.9%
#3 2–1 9.9%
#4 1–0 10.8%
#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Torpedo Kutaisi1.8
Spaeri1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TORPEDO KUTAISI · PPG 1.56

SPAERI · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
52%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.56) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Match Preview & Prediction

Torpedo Kutaisi face Spaeri in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Monday, June 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Torpedo Kutaisi a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Spaeri 24%, so Torpedo Kutaisi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Torpedo Kutaisi and 1.0 for Spaeri (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Torpedo Kutaisi are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.00 for Spaeri. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +14.6%.

PredictVantage

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