Today / Georgia - Erovnuli Liga / Torpedo Kutaisi vs Spaeri

Torpedo Kutaisi vs Spaeri Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Matchday 19 ·Monday, June 22, 2026, 17:00

Torpedo Kutaisi

PPG 1.56 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Spaeri

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-15.9%0-22.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.8%1-110.8%1-25.4%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.9%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.1%3-16.0%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.2%4+-22.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 63.7% 1.57 -17.0%

Draw 23.6% 28.6% 3.50 -10.4%

Away win 23.5% 20.0% 5.00 +10.5%

Over 2.5 61.1% 57.8% 1.73 +5.7%

Over 3.5 37.0% 37.0% 2.70 -0.1%

BTTS 55.9% 57.1% 1.75 -2.2%

Home O1.5 54.5% 61.3% 1.63 -11.2%

Away O1.5 32.0% 27.9% 3.58 +14.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -5.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.9%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–0 9.9%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 0–0✓ 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Torpedo Kutaisi1.8

Spaeri1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TORPEDO KUTAISI · PPG 1.56

SPAERI · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.56) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Torpedo Kutaisi (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -17.0%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.4%

Spaeri (A) 23.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Torpedo Kutaisi face Spaeri in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Monday, June 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Torpedo Kutaisi a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Spaeri 24%, so Torpedo Kutaisi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Torpedo Kutaisi and 1.0 for Spaeri (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Torpedo Kutaisi are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.00 for Spaeri. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +14.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Torpedo Kutaisi vs Spaeri Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Georgia - Erovnuli Liga Predictions