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Sao Bernardo vs Sport Recife Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Brazil - Serie B · Regular Season - 13 · Sunday, June 14, 2026, 14:00

Sao Bernardo

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sport Recife

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.9%0-115.5%0-26.7%0-31.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.3%1-113.2%1-25.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-06.5%2-15.7%2-22.4%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.9%3-11.6%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 2.36 -16.9%

Draw 32.7% 3.15 +3.0%

Away win 32.0% 3.05 -2.4%

Over 2.5 37.8% 2.15 -18.7%

Over 3.5 18.7% 4.00 -15.1%

BTTS 47.8% 1.83 -12.5%

Win probability 1X2

Sao Bernardo (H) 35.2%

ODDS 2.36 · IMPLIED 42.4% EV -16.9%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +3.0%

Sport Recife (A) 32.0%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -2.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 106.1%

Bet Hit 56%

Hunt pick CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 46%HUNT CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.8%

D 33% / xG 0.9-0.9 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.9%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–1 15.5%

#4 1–0 15.3%

#5 0–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sao Bernardo0.9

Sport Recife0.9

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SAO BERNARDO · PPG 1.33

SPORT RECIFE · PPG 2.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs Home AVERAGE (1.33)

Match Preview & Prediction

Sao Bernardo face Sport Recife in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sao Bernardo a 35% chance, the draw 33% and Sport Recife 32%, so Sao Bernardo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Sao Bernardo and 0.9 for Sport Recife (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sao Bernardo are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.20 for Sport Recife. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.0%.

Sao Bernardo vs Sport Recife Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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