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Juventude vs Ponte Preta Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Brazil - Serie B · Regular Season - 13 · Sunday, June 14, 2026, 14:00

Juventude

PPG 1.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ponte Preta

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 67.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.0%0-17.7%0-21.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-021.6%1-110.4%1-22.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.6%2-17.0%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.6%3-13.2%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-11.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 1.49 -20.9%

Draw 27.3% 3.80 +2.2%

Away win 19.7% 7.40 +27.5%

Over 2.5 38.0% 2.15 -18.3%

Over 3.5 22.3% 4.20 -3.8%

BTTS 47.6% 2.20 +4.7%

Win probability 1X2

Juventude (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.49 · IMPLIED 67.1% EV -20.9%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +2.2%

Ponte Preta (A) 19.7%

ODDS 7.40 · IMPLIED 13.5% EV +27.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 106.1%

Bet Hit 56%

Hunt pick CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%HUNT CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.6%

H 53% / xG 1.4-0.5 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.6%

#2 0–0 16.0%

#3 2–0 14.6%

#4 1–1 10.4%

#5 2–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juventude1.4

Ponte Preta0.5

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.3%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENTUDE · PPG 1.83

PONTE PRETA · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.83) vs P(Home)=53.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juventude face Ponte Preta in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juventude a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Ponte Preta 20%, so Juventude are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Juventude and 0.5 for Ponte Preta (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juventude are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.60 for Ponte Preta. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +27.5%.

Juventude vs Ponte Preta Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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