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Juventude vs Ponte Preta Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 14:00

Juventude

PPG 1.83 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Ponte Preta

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 67.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.0%0-17.7%0-21.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-021.6%1-110.4%1-22.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.6%2-17.0%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.6%3-13.2%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-11.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 67.1% 1.49 -20.9%

Draw 27.3% 26.3% 3.80 +2.2%

Away win 19.7% 13.5% 7.40 +27.5%

Over 2.5 38.0% 46.5% 2.15 -18.3%

Over 3.5 22.3% 23.8% 4.20 -3.8%

BTTS 47.6% 45.5% 2.20 +4.7%

Home O1.5 41.6% 56.5% 1.77 -26.4%

Away O1.5 18.0% 17.4% 5.75 +2.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 121 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.6%

H 53% / xG 1.4-0.5 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.6%

#2 0–0 16.0%

#3 2–0 14.6%

#4 1–1 10.4%

#5 2–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juventude1.4

Ponte Preta0.5

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.3%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENTUDE · PPG 1.83

PONTE PRETA · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.83) vs P(Home)=53.1%

Win probability 1X2

Juventude (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.49 · IMPLIED 67.1% EV -20.9%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +2.2%

Ponte Preta (A) 19.7%

ODDS 7.40 · IMPLIED 13.5% EV +27.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juventude face Ponte Preta in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juventude a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Ponte Preta 20%, so Juventude are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Juventude and 0.5 for Ponte Preta (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juventude are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.60 for Ponte Preta. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +27.5%. This match finished 3-0.

Juventude vs Ponte Preta Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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