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Ljungskile vs Ostersunds Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Sweden - Superettan · Regular Season - 12 · Sunday, June 14, 2026, 13:00

Ljungskile

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ostersunds

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-19.0%0-26.5%0-33.1%0-4+1.5%1 1-08.3%1-112.0%1-28.6%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.5%2-18.0%2-25.8%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.5%3-13.6%3-22.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 2.25 -18.1%

Draw 25.5% 3.60 -4.9%

Away win 38.1% 2.85 +8.6%

Over 2.5 55.7% 1.70 -5.3%

Over 3.5 36.2% 2.80 +1.4%

BTTS 59.9% 1.55 -7.2%

Win probability 1X2

Ljungskile (H) 36.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -18.1%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -4.9%

Ostersunds (A) 38.1%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +8.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 2.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Hunt pick CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 37%HUNT CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.9%

A 38% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 0–0 6.2%

#4 2–1 8.0%

#5 0–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ljungskile1.3

Ostersunds1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LJUNGSKILE · PPG 1.20

OSTERSUNDS · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Match Preview & Prediction

Ljungskile face Ostersunds in Sweden - Superettan on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ljungskile a 36% chance, the draw 26% and Ostersunds 38%, so Ostersunds are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Ljungskile and 1.4 for Ostersunds (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ljungskile are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.17 for Ostersunds. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.6%.

Ljungskile vs Ostersunds Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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