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Orebro SK vs Oddevold Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 16 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 17:00

Orebro SK

PPG 1.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Oddevold

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 58.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-19.3%0-27.5%0-34.1%0-4+2.4%1 1-07.1%1-111.5%1-29.3%1-35.0%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.4%2-17.1%2-25.8%2-33.1%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.8%3-12.9%3-22.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.6% 37.0% 2.70 -14.7%

Draw 25.1% 28.2% 3.55 -6.5%

Away win 43.3% 41.7% 2.40 +3.9%

Over 2.5 58.9% 57.1% 1.75 +3.1%

Over 3.5 35.5% 35.1% 2.85 +1.2%

BTTS 57.9% 63.7% 1.57 -9.1%

Home O1.5 37.0% 44.4% 2.25 -16.8%

Away O1.5 49.0% 47.6% 2.10 +2.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob57.9%

A 43% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1 9.3%

#4 0–2 7.5%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orebro SK1.2

Oddevold1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.9% · O3.5 PROB 35.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OREBRO SK · PPG 1.14

ODDEVOLD · PPG 1.57

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Orebro SK (H) 31.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -14.7%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -6.5%

Oddevold (A) 43.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +3.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orebro SK face Oddevold in Sweden - Superettan on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orebro SK a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Oddevold 43%, so Oddevold are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Orebro SK and 1.6 for Oddevold (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orebro SK are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.57 for Oddevold. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +4.2%.

Orebro SK vs Oddevold Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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