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Oddevold vs Norrby IF Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 17 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 17:00

Oddevold

PPG 1.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Norrby IF

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-16.1%0-23.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.3%1-110.7%1-26.9%1-33.0%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.5%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.3%3-15.6%3-23.6%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.7%4+-22.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 58.8% 1.70 -19.6%

Draw 24.6% 26.0% 3.85 -3.2%

Away win 28.1% 22.2% 4.50 +15.9%

Over 2.5 61.2% 59.9% 1.67 +2.2%

Over 3.5 37.3% 38.2% 2.62 -2.3%

BTTS 60.7% 62.5% 1.60 -2.9%

Home O1.5 49.4% 60.6% 1.65 -18.5%

Away O1.5 37.2% 33.9% 2.95 +9.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.7%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.3%

#4 1–2 6.9%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oddevold1.8

Norrby IF1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ODDEVOLD · PPG 1.12

NORRBY IF · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Oddevold (H) 47.3%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -19.6%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -3.2%

Norrby IF (A) 28.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +15.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oddevold face Norrby IF in Sweden - Superettan on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oddevold a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Norrby IF 28%, so Oddevold are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Oddevold and 1.3 for Norrby IF (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oddevold are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.00 for Norrby IF. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.1%.

Oddevold vs Norrby IF Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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