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Helsingborg vs United Nordic Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 16 ·Tuesday, July 28, 2026, 17:00

Helsingborg

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

United Nordic

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-14.1%0-23.6%0-32.1%0-4+1.4%1 1-04.7%1-18.2%1-27.2%1-34.2%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.7%2-18.2%2-27.2%2-34.2%2-4+2.8%3 3-03.1%3-15.5%3-24.8%3-32.8%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-14.4%4+-23.8%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 43.5% 2.30 +2.8%

Draw 21.6% 27.8% 3.60 -13.3%

Away win 33.7% 35.7% 2.80 -5.6%

Over 2.5 66.0% 60.6% 1.65 +8.9%

Over 3.5 44.5% 38.5% 2.60 +15.7%

BTTS 64.5% 66.7% 1.50 -3.3%

Home O1.5 55.7% 51.3% 1.95 +8.6%

Away O1.5 49.0% 45.5% 2.20 +7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 36%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob64.5%

H 45% / xG 2.0-1.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 1–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Helsingborg2.0

United Nordic1.8

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HELSINGBORG · PPG 1.62

UNITED NORDIC · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Helsingborg (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +2.8%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -13.3%

United Nordic (A) 33.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Helsingborg face United Nordic in Sweden - Superettan on Tuesday, July 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Helsingborg a 45% chance, the draw 22% and United Nordic 34%, so Helsingborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Helsingborg and 1.8 for United Nordic (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Helsingborg are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.14 for United Nordic. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +17.3%.

Helsingborg vs United Nordic Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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