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IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 15:00

IK brage

PPG 0.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Landskrona BoIS

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-17.5%0-26.0%0-33.2%0-4+1.8%1 1-06.9%1-111.0%1-28.7%1-34.7%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.0%2-18.0%2-26.4%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.4%3-13.9%3-23.1%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.0%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.8% 40.8% 2.45 -4.9%

Draw 24.5% 27.8% 3.60 -7.1%

Away win 36.7% 38.5% 2.60 -4.6%

Over 2.5 63.6% 61.7% 1.62 +3.0%

Over 3.5 40.2% 39.2% 2.55 +2.5%

BTTS 62.1% 67.6% 1.48 -8.1%

Home O1.5 45.4% 50.0% 2.00 -9.2%

Away O1.5 48.0% 48.8% 2.05 -1.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.1%

A 37% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–0 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IK brage1.5

Landskrona BoIS1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

IK BRAGE · PPG 0.86

LANDSKRONA BOIS · PPG 1.62

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

IK brage (H) 38.8%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -4.9%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.1%

Landskrona BoIS (A) 36.7%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

IK brage face Landskrona BoIS in Sweden - Superettan on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IK brage a 39% chance, the draw 25% and Landskrona BoIS 37%, so IK brage are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for IK brage and 1.6 for Landskrona BoIS (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IK brage are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 1.62 for Landskrona BoIS. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.0%.

IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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