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Varbergs BoIS FC vs Falkenbergs FF Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 13:00

Varbergs BoIS FC

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Falkenbergs FF

PPG 2.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-14.2%0-23.4%0-31.9%0-4+1.1%1 1-05.2%1-18.5%1-26.9%1-33.8%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.3%2-18.6%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.6%3-15.9%3-24.8%3-32.6%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-14.8%4+-23.9%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% 51.3% 1.95 -10.9%

Draw 22.1% 27.0% 3.70 -10.9%

Away win 32.2% 28.6% 3.50 +12.7%

Over 2.5 67.0% 61.7% 1.62 +8.5%

Over 3.5 44.8% 38.5% 2.60 +16.5%

BTTS 63.5% 65.4% 1.53 -2.8%

Home O1.5 55.3% 56.5% 1.77 -2.1%

Away O1.5 48.0% 40.8% 2.45 +17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 46% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–2 6.9%

#5 3–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Varbergs BoIS FC2.0

Falkenbergs FF1.6

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VARBERGS BOIS FC · PPG 2.00

FALKENBERGS FF · PPG 2.12

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.40 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Varbergs BoIS FC (H) 45.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -10.9%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.9%

Falkenbergs FF (A) 32.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Varbergs BoIS FC face Falkenbergs FF in Sweden - Superettan on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 46% chance, the draw 22% and Falkenbergs FF 32%, so Varbergs BoIS FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.6 for Falkenbergs FF (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.12 for Falkenbergs FF. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +17.6%.

Varbergs BoIS FC vs Falkenbergs FF Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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