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Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 13:00

Sandviken

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

GIF Sundsvall

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a clear edge.

+10.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-14.3%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.8%1-19.2%1-24.3%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.6%3-17.1%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-16.3%4+-22.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 57.1% 1.75 +0.8%

Draw 21.5% 26.7% 3.75 -11.6%

Away win 21.0% 23.1% 4.33 -5.4%

Over 2.5 63.6% 57.8% 1.73 +10.0%

Over 3.5 40.6% 35.7% 2.80 +13.7%

BTTS 57.5% 61.7% 1.62 -6.9%

Home O1.5 60.1% 57.8% 1.73 +4.0%

Away O1.5 26.8% 33.3% 3.00 -11.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob57.5%

H 58% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.6%

#2 1–1 9.2%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 3–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sandviken2.2

GIF Sundsvall0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SANDVIKEN · PPG 1.75

GIF SUNDSVALL · PPG 0.43

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.22 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sandviken (H) 57.6%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +0.8%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.6%

GIF Sundsvall (A) 21.0%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -5.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sandviken face GIF Sundsvall in Sweden - Superettan on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sandviken a 58% chance, the draw 22% and GIF Sundsvall 21%, so Sandviken are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Sandviken and 0.9 for GIF Sundsvall (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sandviken are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.43 for GIF Sundsvall. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.7%.

Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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