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IFK Norrkoping vs Helsingborg Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 15:00

IFK Norrkoping

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Helsingborg

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-13.3%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.9%1-17.9%1-23.5%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.7%2-19.5%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.6%3-17.6%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.1%4+-18.1%4+-23.6%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.8% 64.5% 1.55 -5.8%

Draw 20.2% 22.7% 4.40 -6.7%

Away win 19.1% 20.0% 5.00 -2.7%

Over 2.5 63.6% 66.7% 1.50 -4.6%

Over 3.5 40.2% 44.4% 2.25 -9.6%

BTTS 55.4% 64.5% 1.55 -14.1%

Home O1.5 60.1% 69.0% 1.45 -12.9%

Away O1.5 24.4% 34.7% 2.88 -17.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 61% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 7.9%

#4 3–0 8.6%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Norrkoping2.4

Helsingborg0.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK NORRKOPING · PPG 1.86

HELSINGBORG · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.51 for Home, form 1.86 vs 1.43 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

IFK Norrkoping (H) 60.8%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -5.8%

Draw 20.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -6.7%

Helsingborg (A) 19.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -2.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Norrkoping face Helsingborg in Sweden - Superettan on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Norrkoping a 61% chance, the draw 20% and Helsingborg 19%, so IFK Norrkoping are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for IFK Norrkoping and 0.9 for Helsingborg (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Norrkoping are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.43 for Helsingborg. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +0.9%.

IFK Norrkoping vs Helsingborg Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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