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Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 11:00

Ostersunds FK

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Osters IF

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.1%0-23.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.4%1-19.8%1-26.5%1-32.9%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.5%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.7%3-16.2%3-24.1%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-14.7%4+-23.1%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 47.6% 2.10 +4.6%

Draw 22.7% 27.8% 3.60 -11.0%

Away win 27.5% 32.3% 3.10 -8.8%

Over 2.5 63.6% 60.6% 1.65 +4.9%

Over 3.5 40.2% 38.5% 2.60 +4.5%

BTTS 62.1% 66.7% 1.50 -6.9%

Home O1.5 53.6% 54.1% 1.85 -0.8%

Away O1.5 43.7% 43.5% 2.30 +0.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.1%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.2%

#4 1–2 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ostersunds FK1.9

Osters IF1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

OSTERSUNDS FK · PPG 2.00

OSTERS IF · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ostersunds FK (H) 49.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +4.6%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.0%

Osters IF (A) 27.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ostersunds FK face Osters IF in Sweden - Superettan on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ostersunds FK a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Osters IF 28%, so Ostersunds FK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Ostersunds FK and 1.3 for Osters IF (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ostersunds FK are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Osters IF. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.4%.

Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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