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Falkenberg vs Orebro Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 13:00

Falkenberg

PPG 2.17 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Orebro

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 54.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-16.8%0-22.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.6%1-111.4%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-19.5%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.3%3-15.3%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% 54.1% 1.85 +0.6%

Draw 24.7% 27.8% 3.60 -6.7%

Away win 20.9% 25.6% 3.90 -11.1%

Over 2.5 54.3% 55.6% 1.80 -2.3%

Over 3.5 32.5% 33.3% 3.00 -2.5%

BTTS 52.3% 60.6% 1.65 -13.7%

Home O1.5 54.8% 54.6% 1.83 +0.3%

Away O1.5 24.3% 33.9% 2.95 -17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 54% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.4%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 2–0 11.3%

#4 0–0 8.1%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Falkenberg1.7

Orebro0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.3% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FALKENBERG · PPG 2.17

OREBRO · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=54.4%

Win probability 1X2

Falkenberg (H) 54.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +0.6%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.7%

Orebro (A) 20.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Falkenberg face Orebro in Sweden - Superettan on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Falkenberg a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Orebro 21%, so Falkenberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Falkenberg and 0.8 for Orebro (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Falkenberg are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.00 for Orebro. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Falkenberg vs Orebro Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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