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Jaro II vs JS Hercules Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko C

Group C ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 13:00

Jaro II

PPG 3.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

JS Hercules

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 6.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 81.2% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.2%0-10.4%0-20.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-00.8%1-11.7%1-21.9%1-31.4%1-4+1.3%2 2-01.6%2-13.5%2-23.8%2-32.8%2-4+2.7%3 3-02.1%3-14.7%3-25.2%3-33.8%3-4+3.6%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-113.8%4+-215.4%4+-311.4%4+-4+10.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.0% 77.5% 1.29 -18.7%

Draw 18.0% 20.0% 5.00 -6.0%

Away win 19.0% 14.3% 7.00 +19.8%

Over 2.5 81.2% 85.5% 1.17 -5.0%

Over 3.5 67.2% 71.4% 1.40 -5.9%

BTTS 67.3% 76.9% 1.30 -12.5%

Home O1.5 77.8% 85.5% 1.17 -9.0%

Away O1.5 67.9% 42.0% 2.38 +61.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)4.0 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob67.3%

H 63% / xG 4.0-2.2 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–2 5.2%

#2 3–2 5.2%

#3 4–1 4.7%

#4 3–1 4.7%

#5 5–2 4.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jaro II4.0

JS Hercules2.2

COMBINED 6.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 81.2% · O3.5 PROB 67.2%

Form & verdict PPG

JARO II · PPG 3.00

JS HERCULES · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=63.0%

Win probability 1X2

Jaro II (H) 63.0%

ODDS 1.29 · IMPLIED 77.5% EV -18.7%

Draw 18.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -6.0%

JS Hercules (A) 19.0%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +19.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jaro II face JS Hercules in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko C on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jaro II a 63% chance, the draw 18% and JS Hercules 19%, so Jaro II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.0 for Jaro II and 2.2 for JS Hercules (6.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-2. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jaro II are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.00 for JS Hercules. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +61.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Jaro II vs JS Hercules Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko C

Match Preview & Prediction

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