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JS Hercules vs Vaajakoski Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko C

Group C ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 11:00

JS Hercules

PPG 1.20 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Vaajakoski

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.7% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-12.0%0-22.3%0-31.7%0-4+1.7%1 1-02.1%1-14.9%1-25.6%1-34.2%1-4+4.1%2 2-02.6%2-16.0%2-26.9%2-35.2%2-4+5.1%3 3-02.2%3-15.0%3-25.6%3-34.3%3-4+4.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-15.5%4+-26.3%4+-34.8%4+-4+4.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.9% 42.0% 2.38 -2.7%

Draw 19.7% 26.3% 3.80 -15.1%

Away win 39.4% 44.4% 2.25 -11.3%

Over 2.5 75.7% 82.0% 1.22 -7.6%

Over 3.5 53.2% 65.4% 1.53 -18.6%

BTTS 69.1% 82.0% 1.22 -15.7%

Home O1.5 61.4% 65.4% 1.53 -6.1%

Away O1.5 69.2% 66.7% 1.50 +3.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 30%

O2.5 90%

BTTS 80%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 10.6%

Bet Hit 90%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob69.1%

H 41% / xG 2.5-2.3 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2✓ 6.9%

#2 2–1 6.0%

#3 3–2 5.6%

#4 1–1 4.9%

#5 1–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JS Hercules2.5

Vaajakoski2.3

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.7% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

JS HERCULES · PPG 1.20

VAAJAKOSKI · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

JS Hercules (H) 40.9%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -2.7%

Draw 19.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -15.1%

Vaajakoski (A) 39.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

JS Hercules face Vaajakoski in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko C on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JS Hercules a 41% chance, the draw 20% and Vaajakoski 39%, so JS Hercules are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for JS Hercules and 2.3 for Vaajakoski (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JS Hercules are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.80 for Vaajakoski. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +13.9%. This match finished 2-2.

JS Hercules vs Vaajakoski Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko C Predictions